NEW DELHI: After Mumbai’s record-breaking rain spell of 94.4 cm in 24 hours, it could be Gujarat’s turn.
Bhukan Lal, the additional director-general at present heading the India Meteorological Department, warned Wednesday that the weather systems which rained down on Mumbai are still active.
‘‘We expect extension of the rain towards Gujarat,’’ said Lal. ‘‘This is slightly worrying.’’ Gujarat has already been through one bad spell.
Mumbai’s share of rain on Wednesday decreased slightly but IMD expects the system to continue for 48 hours, with rain — less or more — in Maharashtra, adjoining Karnataka, south-east Rajasthan, west MP and many parts of Gujarat. For 24 hours certainly and possibly, for 48 hours.
Mumbai’s devastating spell broke the Santa Cruz record, with 94.4 cm recorded in 24 hours till 8.30 am Wednesday — 38 cm came in just three hours on Tuesday, from 2.30 pm to 5.30 pm. Lal said this had broken the earlier record of 37.5 cm, recorded on July 5, 1974. In fact, it’s the kind of rain Cherrapunji in the North-East might more logically expect. Cherrapunji’s high points have been 103.6 cm in 1876 and 98.5 cm in 1974. IMD attributes the rain which crippled Mumbai to four reasons. First, a wellmarked low-pressure area off the Orissa coast which has moved west and is now over west MP and Chhattisgarh. It’s a deep system. A low-pressure area is marked by sustained wind speeds, moving anti-clockwise, of less than 17 knots . Pressure converges in this circle of sorts, pushing in, the air rises and if there is enough moisture, it may translate into rain. ‘‘Well-marked’’ means it’s capable of turning into the bigger daddy meteorologists label a depression. The second reason: A strong current along the west coast. Third, an offshore trough along the west coast — when winds take sharp turns, the lines joining these V or U points on a chart delineate the trough.
Offshore trough is one that’s off the coast. Fourth reason: A localised phenomenon about Santa Cruz — essentially a cloudburst, said Lal. Even Marathwada, which was 66% short of its rain quota on June 30, has now got 13% more rain than it might have expected — and it’s still raining.
Outside this belt, it’s a mixed picture. North India shouldn’t expect too much rain over the next couple of days, warns IMD. Parts of Orissa and AP may get rain, however. Overall, the monsoon kitty till July 26 shows the country’s rain totalled 410.8 mm, against a normal of 408.2 mm —1% more than would be usual.

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